Business Barometer – EU Elections

Posted by The Lisbon MBA on 3 Sep, 2024 9:20 am

In the latest edition of the Business Barometer, a collaboration between Dinheiro Vivo and The Lisbon MBA Católica|Nova, our alumna Cristina Marques, best student of the Executive MBA Class of 2021-2023, provides insights on the alumni survey results concerning the current political situation in Europe.

 

The Lisbon MBA Alumni community recently shared their perspectives on the current political landscape in Europe, revealing a wide range of opinions influenced by the multifaceted challenges facing Europe and by the way it navigates these turbulent times. From the rise of far-right movements to economic instability and the ambitious goals of the EU’s green and digital transitions, alumni opinions reflect a complex and divided outlook on the future.

 

 

The Rise of Far-Right Movements: A Threat to the European Project?

 

The majority of the alumni (55%) view the rise of the far-right in European countries such as France and Germany as a threat to the European project. This apprehension is related to the ideologies promoted by these parties, which emphasize nationalism, anti-immigration policies, Euroscepticism, and economic protectionism. Such positions, may alumni believe can potentially undermine democratic values, human rights, and social cohesion that support the EU project.

 

The rise of far-right rhetoric has been partially fuelled by geopolitical instability caused by conflict zones (particularly in Middle East and North Africa), which has driven anti-immigration sentiments across Europe.

 

There are also opinions that the rise of these movements could spur necessary reforms, addressing topics that have not long been fully addressed or solved by traditional parties (e.g: migration, inflation, etc.).

 

Nevertheless, 22% of Alumni do not see the rise of the far-right as a threat, either due to their confidence in Europe’s robust institutional frameworks and the ability of mainstream political forces to counterbalance extremist narratives or because might be influenced by the growing acceptance of far-right rhetoric, as observed in the 2024 elections in Portugal.

 

 

Financial Market Uncertainty: A Divided Outlook

 

Alumni are notably divided when it comes to financial markets: 32% anticipate greater turbulence, 35% do not foresee instability; and 32% remain uncertain. This division may stem from the still significant unpredictability of current economic conditions, balanced against emerging signs of improvement compared to the challenges experienced in the last years: (1) the euro area economy grew by 0.3%1 in the first quarter, signalling an end to a period of stagnation, with an expected 0.8%2 year over year growth, (2) the inflation improved to 2.6%3 by mid-2024, showing improvement from its peak of 10.6%3 in 2022 (after sharp acceleration in the same year – the challenging inflationary environment rose mainly due to a combination of supply chain disruptions, surging energy prices (heightened by the War in Ukraine), and expansive fiscal policies), and (3) the European Central Bank’s key rate has been adjusted to 3.75%4, down from a record of 4%4 (where it has been since September 2023). This adjustment was made as a measure to combat inflation.

 

 

EU’s Energy and Digital Transitions: Mixed Reactions

 

The EU’s ambitious energy and digital transitions also caused mixed responses. While 40% are optimistic about these initiatives, 27% believe these initiatives are at risk and 33% are uncertain.

 

The EU has set long-term goals through strategies like the Green Deal5 and the Digital Single Market6, and, in June 2024, EU leaders agreed on a new Strategic Agenda prioritising investment in green and digital transitions. Despite these commitments, some challenges can be seen as potential difficulties in implementing the existing EU’s ambitious plans, contributing to divide opinions: the ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the need for regulatory and technological alignment; and upgrading infrastructure and addressing cybersecurity threats.

 

 

Stricter Immigration Policies Expected in EU

 

A significant majority of alumni (76%) believe that EU’s immigration policy will become stricter. This sentiment is likely influenced by the current facing migration phenomenon and the resulting political pressures. The rising migration rates in Europe, driven by conflict zones and economic distress in neighbouring regions, have amplified public concern over security, economic competition, and social integration, leading to expectations of stricter immigration policies in the near future.

 

 

Portuguese Leadership in the European Council: Contrasting Views

 

When asked about António Costa’s potential leadership of the European Council, alumni opinions were nearly evenly split: 38% supporting the idea, 37% opposing it, and 25% undecided. This reflects a range of perspectives on his legacy and broader uncertainties.

 

 

A Forum of Perspectives

 

In summary, this survey’s findings underline the complexity of the challenges facing the EU. The Lisbon MBA alumni community showcase diverse opinions on the future of the EU, balancing optimism and concern, with a shared view on the likely trend toward stricter immigration policies.

 

 

 

Sources: (1) https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30042024-bp; (2) https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2024-economic-forecast-gradual-expansion-amid-high-geopolitical-risks_en; (3) https://www.euro-area-statistics.org/digital-publication/statistics-insights-inflation/bloc-1c.html (4) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html; https://www.ft.com/content/c97ce66b-20f9-4289-8eda-4adba833ffa9; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511jy6z41vo; (5) https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en; (6) https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/ict/bloc-4.html

 

 

 

Read the full article (original) in Portuguese here.

 

 

Source: Dinheiro Vivo